".the rare event equals uncertainty. This may seem like a strong statement - that we need to principally study the rare and extreme events in order to figure out common ones - but I will make myself clear as follows. There are two possible ways to approach phenomena. The first is to rule out the extraordinary and focus on the 'normal'. The examiner leaves aside 'outliers' and studies ordinary cases. The second approach is to consider that in order to understand phenomenon, one needs first to consider the extremes - particularly if, like the Black Swan, they carry an extraordinary cumulative effect. I don't particularly care about the usual. If you want to get an idea of a friend's temperament, ethics, and personal elegance, you need to look at him under the tests of severe circumstances, not under the regular rosy glow of daily life. Can you assess the danger a criminal poses by examining only what he does on an ordinary day? Can we understand health without considering wild diseases and epidemics? Indeed th
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